Date:09-03-22
Oil it steadily
Sharp increase in pump price will lead to a demand shock. Fiscal policy must prevent this
TOI Editorials
On February 24, the Indian basket of crude breached a psychologically important price barrier of $100 a barrel. A mere ten days later, the price of the Indian basket crossed $126 per barrel just as polling for the five state assemblies ended. This co-occurrence begs the question if pump prices of petrol and diesel, which since November have remained sticky despite the price trend in crude, will now see sharp increases to offset the higher costs being borne by oil refiners. This should be avoided. GoI should ensure that the increase in pump prices is gradual.
India’s economic context today is marked by a potential inflationary spiral along with a weak aggregate demand. This context rules out any meaningful role for monetary policy as nudging up interest rates now will harm economic recovery. It, therefore, makes fiscal policy the best tool to manage the current economic situation. Because a sharp oil price increase at this stage will lead to a demand shock and undo some of last year’s economic recovery, GoI should absorb some of the uncovered costs of oil refiners for now. This will help avoid a demand shock while protecting the companies.
Going forward, retail fuel prices will have to reflect higher input costs. To balance this, GoI must cut central fuel taxes. There’s definitely room for this as benefits from the moderation in global crude price between 2015 and 2021 were not passed on to Indian consumers. For instance, central duties on a litre of petrol in 2014 were about Rs 9.50. Currently, they’re about Rs 27.90 per litre. Reduction in fuel tax revenue will be offset by a likely increase in tax collections – as an increase in inflation will help GoI overshoot its target of 9.6% growth in tax revenue in 2022-23.
Some of the key assumptions underpinning the Union Budget have become untenable on account of subsequent geopolitical turmoil, which is catalysing inflation in other industrial inputs too. Consequently, crowding in private investment in the wake of an increase in public spending may take longer than expected. It leaves GoI and states with the responsibility of using fiscal policy to anchor economic recovery. Public investment will remain the key in holding up investment demand. Given that economic uncertainty coupled with higher inflation will act as a drag on private consumption, governments must ensure revenue spending is not contractionary in inflation-adjusted terms. Don’t choke the consumption demand.
Date:09-03-22
Defence independence
India has to reduce Russian imports, but dependency on the West no solution either
TOI Editorials
While speaking to the UK Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, British foreign secretary Liz Truss said that India’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the result of New Delhi’s dependence on Moscow, and that the way forward is closer India-UK ties. She is correct insofar as more than 50% of India’s military assets are of Russian origin. These need constant maintenance, upgrades and spares – even as the new Western sanctions on Russia, such as excluding several Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system, mean a considerable strain on India’s traditional defence ties with Moscow. But exchanging dependency on Russia for dependency on the West is no solution for India.
Over the last decade India has made concerted attempts to diversify its defence imports. For example, the Indian air force today heavily relies on the American C-17 and C-130J Super Hercules in its heavy-lift transport fleet. The helicopter fleet too has inducted the American Chinook and Apache. But cost competitiveness, proven battlefield performance and familiarity with consecutive generations of servicemen still make Russian platforms preferable. Then there is the issue of technology transfer. Although no country is willing to share cutting-edge military tech, Russia has been slightly more open to helping India develop strategic platforms such as cruise missiles and nuclear submarines.
Even with this Russian help, India today is in no position to build assets like a fifth-generation fighter from scratch. In the near term, India has to maintain a diversified defence portfolio, because switching out all Russian defence equipment for Western imports is not feasible. But in the medium- to long-term, especially given the sanctions on Russia and Moscow’s growing strategic convergence with Beijing, India has to develop its own indigenous military-industrial complex, capable of serving various needs including cutting-edge platforms. That’s the only way to have a truly independent defence and strategic policy.
Date:09-03-22
Debunking an urban myth about Taj Mahal
There are no historical records to prove that Shah Jahan ordered the hands of workers to be chopped off
M. Saleem Beg, who retired as Jammu and Kashmir Director of General Tourism, and was a member of the National Monuments Authority, heads the Jammu and Kashmir chapter of the Indian National Trust for Art and Cultural Heritage
A monument of national importance, the Taj Mahal is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. UNESCO describes it as a “masterpiece of architectural style in conception, treatment and execution”. This 17th century wonder is again at the centre of multiple narratives driven by ideologicy. In the process, history is being pushed into the shadows.
The latest attempt at building an ideologically-driven narrative came against the backdrop of Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurating the Kashi Vishwanath Dham in December 2021. In an appreciable gesture, Mr. Modi showered flower petals on sanitation workers who work at the Kashi Vishwanath Temple, to thank them for keeping the temple clean. But this heartwarming gesture soon became another reason to criticise the Mughals. Several news channels started comparing Mr. Modi with Mughal emperor Shah Jahan. The point hammered home was that unlike the Prime Minister who had showered flower petals on sanitation workers, Shah Jahan had chopped off the hands of those who had built the Taj Mahal. In their misplaced exuberance, some politicians from the ruling establishment picked up the thread. In no time, social media was flooded with posts suggesting that the hands of workers who had built the Taj Mahal were chopped off.
The fact remains that this is a well-known urban myth. There is no historical evidence to prove that Shah Jahan did this. This urban myth goes back to the 1960s or at least resurfaced around that time. As this controversy has been raked up again, let us revisit written records to salvage the truth.
Builders of the Taj
The Taj Mahal was conceived as a memorial by Shah Jahan for his wife Mumtaz Mahal. UNESCO states that several historical and Quranic inscriptions in the Arabic script have helped us understand how the Taj Mahal was built. Masons, stone-cutters, inlayers, carvers, painters, calligraphers, dome builders and other artisans were requisitioned from the whole empire and also from Central Asia and Iran to construct the monument. UNESCO says: “The Taj Mahal is considered to be the greatest architectural achievement in the whole range of Indo-Islamic architecture… The uniqueness of Taj Mahal lies in some truly remarkable innovations carried out by the horticulture planners and architects of Shah Jahan.”
While we cannot discount the skills and craftsmanship of the artisans and workers, it was indeed the expertise and creative capabilities of the architects and planners, including those from Central Asia and Iran, which gave us this marvel. The supervision of the process, starting from the ideation stage to the conception and execution stage, was entrusted to the Mughal nobles.
Account books and Mughal records say, for example, that Ata Muhammad, a stonemason, was paid ₹500 a month. Shakir Muhammad from Bukhara received ₹400, while Muhammad Sajjad, a mason from Multan, and Chiranjilal, a façade worker from Lahore, were paid ₹590 and ₹800 a month, respectively. The normal wages of such workers were about ₹15 rupees a month, as reflected in period records for trained workers. Therefore, it can be safely assumed that the people quoted in the account books were team leaders who were responsible for certain work. They were perhaps tasked with engaging local and other workers. These huge sums were redistributed among several people.
Also, apart from these masters, architects, calligraphers and organisers feature in historical records. Some of them were, or became part of, the Mughal nobility. The uniqueness of the monument has been attributed to the calligraphy. We know from historic records that this distinguishing feature in the monument was devised and supervised by a noble, Amanat Khan, who was originally a calligrapher from Shiraz in Iran and migrated to the Mughal court with his elder brother Afzal Khan in 1608 CE. He began working in the Imperial Library of emperor Shah Jahan, while Afzal Khan soon rose to become Prime Minister of the empire. Amanat Khan was appointed to design the calligraphy on the mausoleum in Agra, which came to be known as the Taj Mahal. Impressed with his work, Shah Jahan conferred on him the title of ‘Amanat Khan’ (like an heirloom) and a ‘mansab’, a land title that ranked with the nobility. Amanat Khan worked on the Taj Mahal for six years. The calligraphy inside the domed hall of the grand mausoleum was completed in 1638. However, just when he completed the most important project of his life, a personal tragedy struck him. Afzal Khan died in Lahore. W. E. Begley, an eminent scholar of Indian and Islamic Art, wrote that the old calligrapher spent his entire income in constructing a memorial for his brother. It is said that Amanat Khan did not return to Iran on the request of his closest friend Ustad Ahmad, who was the chief architect of the Taj Mahal.
Respected architects
Ustad Ahmad was a respected architect who was equated with the nobility of the time. Shah Jahan’s court historians emphasise his personal involvement in the construction. More than any other Mughal emperor, he showed great interest in building new magnificent buildings. He held daily meetings with his architects and supervisors.
The court chronicler, Abdul Hamid Lahori, wrote that Shah Jahan would make “appropriate alterations” to whatever the skilful architects had designed after considerable thought and “would ask the architects competent questions”. In writings by Lahori’s son, Lutfullah Muhandis, two architects are mentioned by name: Ustad Ahmad Lahori and Mir Abd-ul Karim. Ustad Ahmad Lahori had laid the foundations of the Red Fort in Delhi. Mir Abd-ul Karim had been the favourite architect of the previous emperor, Jahangir. Several designers and architects, 37 in all, are mentioned by name in Mughal history. It is probable that they all worked together to shape the Taj Mahal. They include Ismail Afandi (aka Ismail Khan), who had worked for the Ottomans in Turkey as a designer and builder of domes; Qazim Khan, a goldsmith from Lahore, who cast the gold finial that crowns the dome; Chiranji Lal, a lapidary from Delhi, who was chosen as the chief mosaicist; Amanat Khan, the master calligrapher whose signature is inscribed on the Taj gateway; Mohammed Hanif, a master mason from Delhi; and Mukrimat Khan and Mir Abdul Karim from Shiraz, chief supervisors and administrators.
While the efforts and hard work of artisans and workers played a key role in the construction of the monument, we know that projects of this nature and scale are created by the planners and architects. They were all felicitated and rewarded by Shah Jahan for giving shape to his passion and vision. The records conclusively show that the rumours about the chopping of hands were just that: hearsay. For leaders to repeat this myth every now and then only betrays their ignorance and lack of understanding of history.
Date:09-03-22
युद्ध के कारण भारत में अब महंगाई अपरिहार्य
संपादकीय
यूक्रेन से युद्ध के मद्देनज़र रूस से व्यापार बंद करने के बाद पिछले तीन माह में कच्चे तेल की कीमत विश्व बाजार में 70 डॉलर से आज 140 डॉलर प्रति बैरल जा पहुंची है। भारत अपनी जरूरत का 84 प्रतिशत तेल आयात करता है। लिहाजा पांच राज्यों के अंतिम चरण के चुनाव के तत्काल बाद देश में पेट्रोल-डीजल की कीमत में असाधारण वृद्धि अपरिहार्य है। सरकार की योजना है कि अचानक बड़ी वृद्धि न करते हुए चरणबद्ध तरीके से दो माह में कीमतें बढ़ाई जाएं ताकि जनता में घबराहट न पैदा हो। बहरहाल, तेल की कीमत 10 प्रतिशत बढ़ने से थोक महंगाई 0.9 प्रतिशत और खुदरा महंगाई 0.5 प्रतिशत बढ़ती है, यानी बेरोजगारी पर महंगाई की मार। वास्तव में इसे रोकना सरकार के हाथ में नहीं है जब तक वह पेट्रोलियम पर टैक्स को कम न करे। लेकिन टैक्स कम करने का मतलब राजस्व में कमी, जो विकास और राहत कार्यों को प्रभावित करेगी। कच्चे तेल के आयात में पहले से ज्यादा खर्च करने का मतलब चालू खाते में घाटा। महंगाई बढ़ी तो लोग खर्च में कोताही करेंगे, जिससे सामान कम बिकेगा और एमएसएमई इकाइयां फिर बंद होने के कगार पर होंगी। यानी बेरोजगारी का नया दौर। अभी अर्थव्यवस्था पटरी पर आना शुरू हुई ही थी कि युद्ध से आसन्न महंगाई का खौफ सताने लगा है। इसी बीच भारत को रूस से मिलने वाले चार और एस-400 (एक पहले ही मिल चुका है) की आपूर्ति में देरी होगी। स्विफ्ट और अन्य आर्थिक प्रतिबंधों के कारण रूस के उत्पादन पर भी असर होगा। भारत द्वारा रूसी मिग-29 की खरीद रद्द किए जाने का अमरीकी सीनेट ने स्वागत किया है। भारत की सामरिक क्षमता प्रभावित हुई तो इससे चीन भी खुश ही होगा।
Date:09-03-22
भारत अगर चाहे तो हल हो सकता है यूक्रेन-संकट
डॉ. वेदप्रताप वैदिक, ( भारतीय विदेश नीति परिषद के अध्यक्ष )
प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी ने रूस व यूक्रेन के राष्ट्रपतियों से बात करते हुए उन्हें संवाद के लिए प्रेरित किया। यह अच्छी पहल है। अब वे पांच राज्यों के चुनावी झंझट से मुक्त हो चुके हैं। वे चाहें तो अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति जो बाइडेन से भी सीधी बात कर सकते हैं। यूक्रेनी संकट की असली जड़ अमेरिका में ही है। यदि अमेरिका यूक्रेनी राष्ट्रपति जेलेंस्की को नाटो में शामिल होने के लिए नहीं उकसाता तो यूक्रेन पर रूसी हमले की नौबत ही क्यों आती?
क्रेमलिन के प्रवक्ता दिमित्री पेस्कोव ने हाल में अपने बयान में कहा है कि यूक्रेन के खिलाफ रूस अपनी सैन्य-कार्रवाई एक क्षण में ही बंद करने के लिए तैयार है, बशर्ते वह मास्को की मांगों पर ध्यान दे। मांग यह है कि यूक्रेन नाटो के सैन्य गुट में शामिल न होने की घोषणा करे, क्रीमिया को रूसी क्षेत्र घोषित करे और दोनेत्स्क और लुहांस्क को स्वतंत्र राष्ट्रों की मान्यता दे। पेस्कोव ने यह भी स्पष्ट किया कि रूस नहीं चाहता कि वह यूक्रेन को अपना प्रांत बना ले या कीव पर कब्जा कर ले। पिछले डेढ़ हफ्ते में रूस ने यूक्रेन के खिलाफ जो कुछ भी किया, उसे वह युद्ध नहीं, सिर्फ सैन्य कार्रवाई कह रहा है। इसीलिए मारे जाने वाले लोगों की संख्या सैकड़ों में है, हजारों-लाखों में नहीं। लगभग 20 लाख यूक्रेनी भागकर पड़ोसी देशों में चले गए हैं और वे तथा भारतीय छात्र भी सुरक्षित बाहर निकल सकें, इस दृष्टि से रूस ने चार ‘सुरक्षित गलियारों’ की घोषणा की थी लेकिन यूक्रेन ने इसे शुद्ध पाखंड बताया है।
यूक्रेन को पता चल गया है कि अमेरिका और नाटो राष्ट्रों ने उसे पानी पर चढ़ाकर मुंह फेर लिया है। अब भी यूक्रेन के नेता और लोग बड़ी हिम्मत से रूसी हमले का मुकाबला कर रहे हैं लेकिन उन्हें पता है कि यदि यह हमला लंबा खिंच गया तो मुश्किल होगी। ऐसी हालत में यह सही होगा कि जेलेंस्की यूक्रेन की तटस्थता की घोषणा तो कर ही दें। दोनेत्स्क और लुहांस्क को स्वतंत्र राष्ट्रों की तरह मान्य करने के बजाय वे वैसा ही करें, जैसा कि क्रीमिया में किया था। क्रीमिया पर से रूसी कब्जा हटाने की कोशिश यूक्रेन ने नहीं की और उस कब्जे को मान्यता भी नहीं दी। अभी तक बेलारूस में दोनों देशों के अफसर बात करते रहे हैं लेकिन अब खबर है कि तुर्की में रूसी-यूक्रेनी विदेश मंत्री मिलेंगे। तुर्की नाटो का सदस्य है लेकिन रूस-यूक्रेन से उसके घनिष्ठ संबंध हैं। इन देशों की सीमाएं काले समुद्र की वजह से तुर्की से भी जुड़ती हैं। तुर्की ने हमले को अनुचित बताया है लेकिन उसने रूस के विरुद्ध घोषित प्रतिबंधों का भी विरोध किया है। भारत चाहे तो इस शांति-संवाद में तुर्की से आगे निकल सकता है। वह दिल्ली में अमेरिकी, रूसी और यूक्रेनी विदेश मंत्रियों में संवाद करवा सकता है।
यूक्रेन-विवाद पर जब भी अंतरराष्ट्रीय मंचों पर मतदान हुआ, भारत सदा तटस्थ रहा। उसने न तो रूस का पक्ष लिया और न ही यूक्रेन या अमेरिका का! भारत के लगभग 20 हजार छात्रों और नागरिकों को यूक्रेन से बाहर निकाल लाने के भारी काम में यूक्रेन और रूस दोनों ने हमारी मदद की। भारत सरकार ने इस मामले में देर से ही सही, लेकिन बड़ी मुस्तैदी से सराहनीय काम करके दिखाया। यदि भारत इस युद्ध को तुरंत रुकवा सके तो रूस और यूक्रेन को ही नहीं, सारे विश्व को वह कई आर्थिक संकटों से बचा ले सकता है। यदि यूरोपीय देशों को होने वाली रूसी तेल और गैस की आपूर्ति बंद हो जाए तो उनके होश फाख्ता हो जाएंगे। इसीलिए इन देशों ने अभी तक रूसी तेल और गैस पर प्रतिबंध नहीं लगाया है। पिछले 12-13 दिनों में कच्चा तेल 44 प्रतिशत महंगा हो गया है। सोना, चांदी और डॉलर की कीमतें बढ़ती चली जा रही हैं। अंतरराष्ट्रीय राजनीति में भी नए समीकरणों का विकास हो रहा है। तीन दशक पुराने शीत युद्ध की नरम शुरुआत तो हो ही चुकी है। अब एक तरफ अमेरिकी खेमा होगा और दूसरी तरफ चीनी-रूसी खेमा। इस दूसरे खेमे का नेतृत्व अब रूस नहीं, चीन करेगा। इसीलिए चीन हर कदम फूंक-फूंककर रख रहा है।
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